2017 College Football Week 12 Preview

 

We’re getting desperately close to the end of the 2017 College Football Regular Season. Because the Iron Bowl is on Nov. 24, neither Auburn nor Alabama plays in a game that they should lose. Wisconsin hosts Michigan in the most important game of the season for the Badgers while UCLA battles USC in the biggest rivalry game in the Pac 12. As a reminder, I’m using Coaches Poll rankings for this blog.

Check out a preview of the biggest games in College Football Week 12!

2017 College Football Week 12 Preview

Saturday, Nov. 18

12 Central Florida -14 at Temple +14

The undefeated Central Florida Knights travel to Philadelphia to battle the Temple Owls. Temple isn’t nearly as tough of a team this season as they have been in past seasons. The Owls allow 26.5 points per game. Although Temple should fight hard in the first half, Central Florida’s talented offense should take charge in the second half.

I think the Knights cover the spread.

Pick: Central Florida -14  

18 Michigan +7.5 at 4 Wisconsin -7.5

This is the biggest game in College Football Week 12. The Michigan Wolverines’ defense has played incredibly well in their last 3. No team has scored more than 14 points versus the Wolverines. Could Wisconsin become the fourth Big Ten opponent in a row to fail to score more than 14 points?

That’s not likely. Michigan has beaten up on Rutgers, Minnesota, and Maryland. I think Wisconsin is one of the best teams in the nation. They’ve got a chance to rout Michigan on Saturday.

Best Pick: Wisconsin -7.5 

Southern Methodist +11.5 at 17 Memphis -11.5

Memphis is a decent football team. They shouldn’t cover a -11.5 spread versus the SMU Mustangs on Saturday, though. Southern Methodist averages 40 points per game. Memphis allows 31 points per. If SMU gets to their average number of points, I think they will, the 11.5 is going to mean an awful lot in determining which team wins against the spread.

Pick: Southern Methodist +11.5 

14 Texas Christian -7.5 at Texas Tech +7.5

TCU’s defense fell off a cliff in Week 11. The Horned Frogs had been allowing 16.3 points per game. Oklahoma scored 38 in a 38 to 20 win. Texas Tech’s defense allows over 33 points per. TCU all the way is what I’m thinking.

Pick: TCU -7.5

Virginia +19.5 at 2 Miami -19.5

Will Miami take a backward step after their amazing 41 to 8 win over Notre Dame as a 3.5 home dog in College Football Week 11? Maybe, but it might not matter. Miami has no business losing straight up to Virginia. The Cavaliers are 5 and 1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Miami, however.

But, this a much different Miami team than Virginia’s used to playing. I think the Hurricanes keep the good times rolling with another blowout win.

Pick: Miami -19.5

19 Mississippi State -11.5 at Arkansas +11.5

Mississippi State doesn’t often play that well on the road. This is a road game. That’s why it’s important to still handicap the matchup even though Arkansas is a terrible 2 and 7 against the spread.

Okay, done with the handicapping. The Razorbacks are 0 and 3 ATS at home this season. Mississippi State is a best pick.

Best Pick: Mississippi State -11.5

UL-Monroe +36.5 at 6 Auburn -36.5

Auburn could beat UL-Monroe by 50 if they wanted to. But, the Tigers shouldn’t be fired up to do that on Saturday. Auburn battles Alabama in the traditional Iron Bowl on Nov. 24. That’s not a long time for the Tigers to prepare for their hated rivals. I think Auburn wins by around 21 to 28 points. That should be good enough for the Tigers to feel good going into College Football Week 13.

Pick: UL-Monroe +36.5

Texas +3.5 at 25 West Virginia -3.5

West Virginia’s offense has gotten back on track. That won’t help it versus an underrated Texas defense. The Longhorns are only 5 and 5 straight up. They’re 6 and 3 against the spread. What it tells us is that Texas always comes to play. West Virginia is 3 and 1 ATS at home. I still believe Texas plays the Mountaineers tight. Heck, Texas could win this game stright up.

Pick: Texas

Illinois +39.5 at 8 Ohio State -39.5

Beating Illinois means nothing to the Ohio State Buckeyes. Beating Michigan on Nov. 25 means everything to the Ohio State Buckeyes. Sure, the chances of Ohio State making it to the CFP are slim. That won’t matter if Ohio State can beat Michigan in Week 13.

The Buckeyes will trounce Illinois. Make no mistake. They just won’t trounce them by 40 points.

Pick: Illinois +39.5  

Kentucky +21.5 at 7 Georgia -21.5

I’ve got the feeling that Auburn exposed Georgia a bit in the Bulldogs first loss of the season. Georgia’s D gave up 40 points to the Auburn Tigers. Georgia’s offense only scored 17. It’s going to be tough for Georgia to bounce back from the devastating loss. I must take the points.

Pick: Kentucky +21.5  

5 Oklahoma -35 at Kansas +35

Kansas allows over 42 points per game. This is just a bad matchup for the Oklahoma Sooners. Oklahoma was ranked 5th in the CFP last week. The Sooners are knocking on the door to another College Football Playoff appearance. I don’t think they blow it by allowing Kansas to stick around until the fourth quarter. Don’t be surprised if the Sooners score 60 against the Jayhawks on Nov. 18.

Best Pick: Oklahoma -35 

Kansas State +20.5 at 13 Oklahoma State -20.5

The Oklahoma State Cowboys bounced back from their 52 to 62 loss to the Oklahoma Sooners by beating the Iowa State Cyclones 49 to 42. Oklahoma State is only 1 and 3 against the spread in their last 3 games. K-State is 4 and 5 ATS overall. The Wildcats have gone 2 and 2 straight up and ATS in their last 4. Although Oklahoma State could beat K-State by 21 points, I don’t think they will. I like Kansas State.

Pick: Kansas State +20.5 

Navy +18 at 9 Notre Dame -18

Man, Notre Dame fell to earth big time in their loss to Miami in Week 11. It was easily one of the worst performances by the Notre Dame Irish in a number of years. I’m not sure the Irish bounce back with a more than 20 point win over the Navy Midshipmen.

The trends say that Navy wins this one against the spread. Navy is 10 and 2 in the last 12 meetings at Notre Dame. To me, that’s the most telling trend available. Navy covers.

Best Pick: Navy +18

Maryland +17 at 24 Michigan State -17

It doesn’t get more devastating than Michigan State’s 3 to 48 loss to the Ohio State Buckeyes in their last. Michigan State is a well-coached team. That’s pretty much all they’ve got over Maryland. I don’t think being well-coached accounts for a 17-point spread. Maryland isn’t even a good football team. The Terrapins should keep this closer than 17 points, though.

Pick: Maryland +17 

21 Louisiana State -15.5 at Tennessee +15.5

This is my no-brainer pick for College Football Week 12. LSU has gone 4 and 0 against the spread in their last 4. The teams that LSU has covered the spread against are:  Auburn, Ole Miss, Alabama, and Arkansas.

Tennessee has covered the spread twice in their last 7 games. The Vols covered a spread versus Southern Miss on Nov. 4. Tennessee also covered a spread versus Kentucky on Oct. 28. In the game versus Kentucky, Tennessee only covered the spread by half a point.

LSU should roll all over the Volunteers in this SEC matchup.

 Best Pick: LSU -15.5

UCLA +16 at 10 USC -16

Every head-to-head trend imaginable has USC covering the 16-point spread. The favorite is 6 and 2 against the spread in the last 8 meetings. The home team is 15 and 6 ATS in the last 21 meetings. Most importantly? UCLA is 2 and 8 ATS in the last 10 meetings at USC.

Also, the Trojans are just the much better team this season. This is one rivalry game where the favorite should have no trouble putting a sweet beat down onto the dog. USC is yet another College Football Week 12 best pick.

Best Pick: USC -16

Utah +17.5 at 15 Washington -17.5

I’m not understanding why the Washington Huskies are -17.5 favorites over the Utah Utes. From my perspective, Washington won’t get close to covering that spread. Utah is 6 and 1 ATS in their last 7 road games. The Utes are also 4 and 0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these 2.

Washington looked tired in their 22 to 30 loss to Stanford in Week 11. Utah has a shot at beating Washington straight up in Week 12.

 Pick: Utah +17.5