Welcome to the the Deadhit Sports 2016 NFL Football Betting Season Guide. Keep this page bookmarked as we’ll be updating this guide weekly with updated odds, new developments, changing future odds and the best in NFL news for the smart bettor. We’re building this guide to cover everything you need to do in order to get set for regular season kickoff.
What’s coming? Lots. I’ll be adding: How to Bet on the NFL like a Pro, why you need to use Bitcoin, and the insider guide on where to bet this season. Stay tuned, it’s going to be awesome!
Football season starts Thursday, September 8 and as in previous years 2016 NFL betting odds and lines are getting setup well ahead of time.
This year as always and according to the official NFL Schedule, the first game of the regular season is a rematch of Superbowl 50 between the Carolina Panthers and the now Manning-less Denver Broncos.
What You'll Find Inside...
- 2016 NFL Betting Guide
- Super Bowl 50 : Early Season Betting Preview
2016 NFL Betting Guide
If we take the season from the numbers only, having the Patriots and Packers as favorites to win their Division, that should be the matchup play for Super Bowl LI.
According to the future odds placed in Vegas the Patriots should win the Division. Necvertheless there are some teams that are planning to prove them wrong. The Steelers, Bengals and the Broncos will be their tougher rivals for the AFC Championship.
- The Patriots have dominated the AFC East, winning the division 12 times in the last 13 years.
- They will likely win the Division again this year.
- The NY Jets missed the playoffs and their quarterback situation with Ryan Fitzpatrick not signing 7 days before Camp starts can become an issue.
- Geno Smith can not fill in his shoes, and even if he does they need to sign an experienced #2.
- RB Matt Forte coming in from being the star the Bears can he replace Chris Ivory?
- Too many variables pending to be able to vaticinate the Jets season.
- The Buffalo Bills used their top three picks in the recent draft to try and fix their defense problems.
- The addition of Shaq Lawson DE, Reggie Ragland, ILB, and Adolphus Washington,DT.
- The first two will cover departures of Mario Williams and Nigel Bradham.
- Washington will be key to providing depth at both 5-technique defensive end, 3-technique defensive tackle and 0-technique nose tackle.
- The Miami Dolphins under new coach Adam Gase will try and rebuild from the pieces of last season.
- They brought in Mario Williams from the Bills and Arian Foster from the Texans to help, but more things have to change.
- Tannehill has to seriously level up his play to create something with top-end players like receiver Jarvis Landry.
- The defense has to be more like Ndamukong Suh, and then maybe they will start to rebuild for 2017.
- The Broncos are placed as favorites in the AFC West, but Denver must replace half a dozen starters, including the quarterback. Seems they will depend highly on their defense AGAIN to make it through. Their first test is against their Super Bowl 50 rivals the Carolina Panthers.
- Look for the Panthers to take this game by 7+ points. The Broncos are a great team, and Manning didn’t wow anyone in Superbowl 50 but he was a force of calm experience on the field.
- Also look for Cam Newton to seek a small amount of redemption to open the Panthers regular season on a high note.
- Kansas City made the playoffs for the second time in three seasons last year. At this point they would seem to be the only possible contenders going into the playoffs.
- If Kansas City comes out strong, look for them to drive consistently through mid-season and make a strong playoff run.
- The Oakland Raiders seem to be emerging this year from previous years lack of talent.
- At some point were thinking on moving to Vegas. Still they only ranked 20th in the league in total offense and defense last year, don’t expect greatness or a playoff run from the Raiders.
- Depending on the schedule you may have a change to lay some solid spread bets to keep your bankroll healthy this season.
- The San Diego Charges have a lot to fix. They will not be contenders this year.
AFC North : Odds and Stats
- The Pittsburgh Steelers are considered the ones to win the AFC North, and even a Super Bowl 51 contender, eventhough they do not have a solid defense. Their three draft picks: Artie Burns CB, Sean Davis S, and Javon Hargrave DT will be key to fix this area if the make the fit.
- The Cincinnati Bengals are probably the best bet in the group, they are well leveled in offense and defense, they just can not move forward past the Division into the playoffs. They have failed five years in a row.
- For the Baltimore Ravens, even with Joe Flacco and Justin Forsett healthy, and the 8 draft picks there is not much chance of post-season success this season. Odds wise they are almost at the bottom of the Division.
- The Cleveland Browns are last in the odds in every category. A new coach and Robert Griffin III may start the process. In fact, their only way now is up.
AFC South : Odds and Stats
- The Indianapolis Colts are the best of the group and they are way down in the odds for a Super Bowl bid and a Division title. Andrew Luck being healthy this year may place them near the playoffs, still the competition is tough and probably will not make it.
- Texans might win the NFC South again, eventhough the Colts have better betting odds. The key for the Texans is their defense. The acquisition of yet another quaterback (they changed 4 times last year), bringing in Brock Osweiler might spark the offense, and that could change the whole picture. Brock was supposed to be Denver’s starter this season after Peyton Manning’s retirement, but he signed with Houston instead.
- The Jags, eventhough they still have a lousy record, have been improving every year. Jacksonvile is building up on talent and using their picks to boos the defense, this migh be a team that for 2017 will probably have a positive record. This year we expect them to continue improving, and might give more than a couple surprises in the season.
- The Tennessee Titans are right there with the Browns at the bottom af the odds chart. The difference is three names in the Titans roster: Derrick Henry, Marcus Mariota, and DeMarco Murray. Those three names will ensure the running game, but as we will mention later on, the Yards Per Pass Attempt is a growing factor for going to the Super Bowl, so the passing game has to be there too.
Opening ODDS TO WIN THE 2016-17 AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
|New England Patriots||+350|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+900|
NFC Betting Preview
- The Dallas Cowboys are favorites to win the Division. Last year Tony Romo’s 12 game injury crushed the Dallas options. Again this proves Dallas is not ready to work without Romo, which is clearly a weak link for them. Their recent pick of RB Ezekiel Elliott will strengthen their running game, and LB Justin Durant will help on the defense in face of Rolando McClain’s suspension.
- The NY Giants will start the season with a new coach, a 35 year old QB and the worst defense in the league. Nothing else to add.
- The Washington Redskins results last year came thanks to the efforts of Kirk Cousins. They drafted Josh Doctson a top receiver to give Cousins another option to target and Josh Norman from the Panthers a true #1 CB. Still their inside defensive line is very weak so probably Cousins (who is on trial for one more year) will be the one with the responsibility to win the Division, again.
- The Philadelphia Eagles is another team changing coaches, in this case for former quarterback Doug Pederson. They seem to be rebuilding the team, but got stuck with Sam Bradford as the starting quarterback. They did pick QB Carson Wentz in the draft and got Chase Daniels as the #2 QB, look for quaterback changes in the early part of the 2016 season.
- The Seattle Seahawks are top contenders for playing and winning Super Bowl 51 ranked third below the Patriots and the Packers. Thomas Rawls will be key replacing Marshawn Lynch for the Seahawks to move forward to the Playoffs.
- The Arizona Cardinals are the second top contenders to go to the playoffs this year. Leading the NFL on total offense and fifth on defense, plus signing DE Robert Nkemdiche in the draft even places them 5th in odds to win the Super Bowl.
- The Rams are back in LA with no playoff merit to show in this past ten years. They also hope rookie quarterback Jared Goff fixes their offensive issues as they gave up several draft picks to get the #1 pick from the Titans. They did retain coach Jeff Fisher which we think is the bigger part of the problem they have.
- San Francisco 49ers are sunk down in the bottom of the odds for Super Bowl 51 , Division and Championship. They are starting a new coach, they still are not sure who wil be the starting QB, and their top draft picks were used on defense, like most teams. One of the picks is interesting, QB Jeff Driskel out of Louisiana Tech who pictures himself as both Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers. hope we get to see him play.
- As expected the Green Bay Packers are topping this Division, and yes they are second in odds to win the Super Bowl. injuries in the pass/receive area made them lose against the Cardinals last year. If they stay healthy, this team can be the next Super Bowl Champion.
- The Minnesota Vikings showed some poise last year beating the Packers at Lambau Field to win the Division. This year will depend on how much 31 year old RB Adrian Peterson has left , and the level of improvement on QB Teddy Bridgewater. Those failing the Vikings will fall back.
- The Chicago Bears have improved but Jay Cutler’s inconsistency from game to game can and will create havoc in even the best sestablished sysetm. The Bears are dealing also with a new offensive coordinator (Adam Gase is the new coach for the Miami Dolphins). The RB unit lacks yardage. If their receivers stay healthy that might help Cutler.
- The Detroit Lions have never been to a Super Bowl, most likely that will not happen this year either. Last year they showed improvement from the half on, which may carry over into the 2016 NFL betting season. Losing WR Calvin Johnson to retirement will definitively impact on their perfomance.
- The Carolina Panthers lost last year’s Super Bowl. Yes the Broncos did not win it, they lost it. Cam Newton did everything wrong on that game, still they are the third favorites to win the Super Bowl this year. They went 15-1 last year just to fall apart in the big game. With Josh Norman gone to the Redskins, Cam Newton will have to prove again if they are worthy of winning the NFC Champiosnhip. Currently the odds favor the Seahawks and the Packers over teh Panthers.
- The Atlanta Falcons will face the toughest schedule in the league this season. Falling from 5-0 to 8-8 last year came from a lack of running game and injuries. As per the draft, defense should have been key for them, and we feel they failed to fix the pass rush and interior blocking issues they have.
- The New Orleans Saints are ranked second in the league on offense but also have the second’s worst defense. To address this, they drafted DE Sheldon Rankins, S Vonn Bell, DT David Onyemata. The other draft picks went to R Michael Thomas with RB Daniel Lasco to add to the offense targets for Brees. The Saints might pull something this year and make it to the playoffs.
- Tampa Bay Bucanners do have the numbers to be a winning team. They fired their coach due to under-performing defense, and promoted defensive coordinator Dirk Koetter for the position. Trying to fix the defense they signed Giants free-agent DE Robert Ayers, Dolphins CB Brent Grimes and in the draft picked CB Vernon Hargreaves, and DE Noah Spence. An interesting note is that they picked placekicker Roberto Aguayo who has never missed a field goal from 40-yards or closer in his career.
Opening ODDS TO WIN THE 2016-17 NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
|Green Bay Packers||+525|
Super Bowl 50 : Early Season Betting Preview
Super Bowl 51 or LI will be held in Houston on February 5, 2017.
Odds to Win Super Bowl 51
When looking for a Super Bowl winner we have to look at the Average Scoring Margin and the Yards Per Pass Attempt.
The favorites to win Super Bowl 51 are the Patriots, followed by the Packers and Seahawks.
The Panthers and Steelers have shown changes in their teams that could bring them back into Playoff situations, if we know anything about NFL Football, anything can happen in a season. Interestingly enough three AFC teams top our Super Bowl 50 favorites list.
We will take a look at the top teams with the best odds to win Super Bowl 51
New England Patriots
Apparently over 70% of bettors agree on the Patriots winning Super Bowl LI. Tom Brady’s 4 game suspension and losing the appeal because of Deflategate did nothing to move the odds. With odds at +600 they are way ahead of the other teams, but why is that? It looks like perception only. We actually think they will not make it.
If you check the hard part of their schedule: Arizona which is 5th favorite to win the Super Bowl will be their first game (without Brady). The Texans on Week 3 (without Brady), which are always tough in defense. The Steelers 2nd favorite to win the Super Bowl according to current odds on week 7. Two weeks later the Seahawks ranked 3rd favorite.
Division wise, yes the Patriots will most likely win the AFC East, but the Conference? The AFC North will place two or maybe even three strong teams in the fight: Bengals, Steelers and Ravens. We think the AFC South this year will show probably the Colts and Texans. The AFC West will have the Broncos again, even with their QB issues.
The Conference will go to the Steelers, most likely. Sorry Brady, we do not see you at Super Bowl 51.
The offseason has made the Steelers very popular. In fact bettors have aligned with this feeling, moving them from fourth to second in one week in the NFL future odds.
If you look at the Steelers close enough you can see their balance in the offense and defense. Some will argue about Martavis Bryant, but they still have Le’Veon Bell and DeAngelo Williams. They have Antonio Brown, WR Markus Wheaton teamed up with newcommers Ladarius Green and Demarcus Ayers. And of course Big Ben Roethlisberger who will deliver to them.
Defense finished third in the league last year, and it was addressed in the off season as well. As we mentioned above in our 2016 NFL Betting preview for the Steelers. Their three draft picks: Artie Burns CB, Sean Davis S, and Javon Hargrave DT.
It would be interesting to see if the Steelers will look at ex Falcon Devin Hester. He might be an interesting fit in their roster.
Looking at the Seahawks, we know they have the defense, and they will try to be the top ranked defense in the leage again in points allowed for the fifth straight season.Their offense on the other hand needs to improve substantially if they want to win the NFC championship.
Wilson will need help after the retirement of Marshawn Lynch and departures of LT Russell Okung and RG J.R. Sweezy. This places RB Thomas Rawls on the spot. A lot is riding on him recovering from his ankle. Seattle did sign some running backs in the draft.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers were second favorite to win Super Bowl 51 last week, why they changed. Well we think because of the ongoing HGH investigation on two of their players, which might hit them hard in the lineup roster.
This aside, Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in the NFL as of today. And you may disagree, but he is, and I am not a Packers fan. This said, just add their 2014 offensive team of starters, which was first in the NFL scoring, coming back for this season. Now add the highly improved 2015 defense. Yes, the Packers will win the Division and are our choice to win the NFC Championship. The Super Bowl? We are prognosticating a Steelers vs Packers Super Bowl 51.
The Cardinals have never won the Super Bowl and have made only one appearance in the season’s final game in the 50 years of Super Bowl history. If you think about it, last year the Cardinals lost only one game and failed against the Panthers in the NFC Championship. Actually if they had beaten the Panthers, they would have definitively played a better game than Carolina against the Broncos. They had the potential to even win. We will never now.
Carson Palmer and the Cards have the team to win the NFC West and definitively a post season team for the Championship. All this will be initially meassured against the Patriots in the first game of the season.
The Top Ten Contenders to Win Super Bowl 51
|New England Patriots||600|
|Green Bay Packers||900|