2017 NFL Week 11 Preview

 

The biggest game in NFL Week 11 is the Philadelphia Eagles at the Dallas Cowboys. This is the first .500 team the Eagles have battled since Oct. 12. Are the Eagles for real? Can the Cowboys get past the loss of LB Sean Lee? We’re gong to find out.

Also, the NFL plays a regular season game in Mexico City in Week 11 when the New England Patriots battle the Oakland Raiders. That should be an interesting battle. Check out a preview of every game in NFL Week 11!

2017 NFL Week 11 Preview

Tennessee Titans -6.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5

The Tennessee Titans travel to Pittsburgh with a lot at stake in NFL Week 11’s Thursday Night Game. The Titans are at 6 and 3. Pitt is at 7 and 2. Based on the trends, neither team has a leg up over the other. Tennessee is 0-5-1 against the spread in their last last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Pittsburgh is 3 and 9 ATS in their last 9 games in November.

The Steelers’ D allows 102.7 rushing yards per game. To me, that’s the difference. Tennessee can afford to be patient in this game while Pittsburgh’s offense is based on long passes downfield. The Titans can adjust better to the Steelers’ D than I believe Pitt can adjust to the flow of the game.

I think Tennessee covers.

Pick: Titans +6.5 

L.A. Rams +2.5 at Minnesota Vikings -2.5

62% of football handicappers are backing the Rams at +2.5 over the Minnesota Vikings. I don’t necessarily see that happening. The Vikings have a slightly better defense. To me, the 2.5 points are more than fair.

As far as trends are concerned, Minnesota should have this. The favorite is 7 and 2 in the last 9 meetings. The Rams are 0 and 4 in the last 4 meetings. The Vikings are also 10 and 1 in the last 11 meetings versus a team with a winning road record.

Pick: Vikings -2.5

Detroit Lions -3 at Chicago Bears +3

The Lions are getting 81% of the love from NFL handicappers in their game at Soldier Field this Sunday. I must again be a contrarian. The Lions are one-dimensional on offense. If QB Matthew Stafford doesn’t have a good game, the Lions don’t score points.

Not only that, but Chicago’s D ranks 10th in the NFL against the pass. The Bears only allow 204.8 passing yards per game. Since Detroit can’t rush the ball, Chicago’s underrated D is going to tee-off on Stafford or his wide receivers when they catch passes.

Pick: Bears +3

Baltimore Ravens -2 at Green Bay Packers +2

Baltimore heads to Green Bay as a slight -2 favorite. Here’s another game where I can’t go with the against the spread favorite. Baltimore’s offense ranks 32nd in passing yards per game. The Ravens throw for 165.7 passing yards per. The Ravens’ defense allows 125.9 rushing yards per.

Baltimore’s entire defense is predicated on stopping the pass. Green Bay doesn’t pass the ball that well with back-up QB Brett Hundley. What they can do is rush the football. If Green Bay gives RB Jamaal Williams 20 carries again in Week 11 like they did in Week 10, they should upset Baltimore on the moneyline.

Pick: Packers +2

Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5 at Cleveland Browns +7.5

The Jaguars head to Cleveland to battle the Browns in what should be a much closer game than many realize it will be. Jacksonville could dominate the Browns’ offense. I don’t believe it will happen, though.

Why? The Browns have made a slight adjustment on offense that’s sprung RB Isaiah Crowell in Cleveland’s last couple of games. Crowell rushed for 68 yards on 11 carries, a 5.8 per rush average, in Week 8. He rushed for 90 yards on 16 carries in Week 10.

Jacksonville’s offense isn’t that good. If Cleveland can get Crowell on track early, they can win their first game of the season.

Pick: Browns +7.5

Washington Redskins +7.5 at New Orleans Saints -7.5

The Saints have gone 7 and 0 straight up and 7 and 0 against the spread since starting the season at 0 and 2. Washington’s defense allows 109.6 rushing yards per game. That’s not bad. It won’t be good enough versus the Saints, though.

If New Orleans has an issue rushing the football, they can lean on future hall of fame QB Drew Brees. Washington allowed Minnesota back-up QB Case Keenum to throw 4 TDs against them in a Week 10 loss. Brees can get going if he must.

New Orleans should provide another blowout victory. It’s going to be hard for Washington to move the football versus the Saints’ defense.

Best Pick: Saints -7.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at Miami Dolphins -3

The Dolphins played Carolina tough, at least for a while, in Week 10. Tampa Bay? The Buccaneers lucked into a 15 to 10 win over the New York Jets. Even if Jameis Winston plays, it’s difficult for me to see Tampa putting together 2 straight excellent defensive performances.

The Buccaneers are a terrible 2 and 6 ATS this season. They’re also 0 and 3 ATS on the road. I like Miami’s matchups on offense versus Tampa’s defense. Miami all the way.

Pick: Dolphins -3  

Arizona Cardinals -1.5 at Houston Texans +1.5

Arizona has no business not dominating the Houston Texans on Sunday. Zona did lose 16 to 22 to Seattle in Week 10. Think about it, though. The Cardinals’ D held Seattle QB Russell Wilson to only 22 points. Almost as important, Arizona’s offense scored 16 points versus Seattle’s defense.

Houston doesn’t play defense. They can’t. Too many injuries in all 3-levels of the D has led to Houston’s D allowing 26.8 points per. Houston’s offense is a mess because QB Tom Savage isn’t good enough to get it on track.

Best Pick: Cardinals -1.5

Buffalo Bills +4.5 at L.A. Chargers -4.5

The Bills head to L.A., I mean Carson, to battle the Chargers in what should be a turnaround game for Buffalo. The Bolts don’t really have the necessary momentum to beat a team like the Buffalo Bills, much less beat the Bills by 5 points.

The Chargers could be in some trouble after blowing a game they had in their back pocket in Week 10. Buffalo got trounced 10 to 47 versus the Saints. But, the Chargers are still 1 and 3 against the spread at home. I’ll take the points.

Pick: Bills +4.5

Kansas City Chiefs -10.5 at New York Giants +10.5

KC goes into New York to face the Giants off their bye week. The Chiefs should come out swinging. It’s difficult to lay 10.5 points in an NFL game. That is, it’s difficult unless it’s on Kansas City versus the New York Giants.

KC’s offense averages 28.1 points per game. The Giants’ D just allowed one of the worst offenses in the NFL, San Francisco’s, to score 31 points against it in Week 10. KC rolls.

Best Pick: Chiefs -10.5

Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 at Denver Broncos -2.5

Who wins in a game between the hapless Cincinnati Bengals and the equally hapless Denver Broncos? It sounds crazy, but I’m all over the Bengals in this one. Denver’s D has yielded 29 points, 51 points, and 41 points in the Broncos last 3 games, all losses.

Cincinnati’s defense is playing much better than Denver’s defense right now. I also have much more faith in Cincy QB Andy Dalton than I do in Denver QB Trevor Siemian…or Brock Osweiler…or Paxton Lynch…

Pick: Bengals +2.5

New England Patriots -6.5 vs Oakland Raiders +6.5

The Patriots battle versus the Raiders takes place in Mexico City on Sunday. Oakland goes into the game off a bye. The trends suggest that New England dominates Oakland on Nov. 19.

The Patriots are 9 and 2 against the spread in their last 11 games following an ATS win. New England is also 12 and 4 ATS in their last 16 versus the AFC. Oakland is 5 and 0 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.

But, the Raiders are also 1-5-1 against the spread in their last 7 games overall. I don’t see how Oakland’s defense, which allows 23.8 points per game, comes close to stopping QB Tom Brady from doing whatever he wants in Mexico City on Sunday.

Best Pick: Patriots -6.5 

Philadelphia Eagles -3 at Dallas Cowboys +3

Dallas is the best team the Eagles have faced this season since their 28 to 23 win over Carolina on Oct. 12. That’s the most important fact regarding this rivalry battle on Sunday night. 77% of football handicappers are willing to lay the 3 points.

I’m not. The Eagles are a good team. I get that. But, Dallas isn’t a bad football team. The Cowboys have a QB in Dak Prescott that’s at least equal to Philly’s Carson Wentz. Holding the Broncos’ and QB Brock Osweiler to 23 points isn’t a good sign for Philly going into this game.

Prescott is a much better quarterback than what he showed against Atlanta in Week 10. I’m taking the points on the Boys.

Pick: Cowboys +3 

Atlanta Falcons +3 at Seattle Seahawks -3

To me, this is a best pick. Sure, Seattle lost cornerback Richard Sherman for the season. Seattle often plays zone coverage in their secondary, though. Not only that, but Seattle only allows 101 rushing yards per game on average.

It looked like Atlanta’s offense got back on track in their 27 to 7 win over Dallas in Week 10. It did…and it didn’t. What I mean by that is the Falcons’ offense only got back on track because Dallas’ best linebacker, Sean Lee, left the game early with a hamstring injury.

Seattle’s D is relatively healthy save for Sherman. Atlanta should show up with the same offensive issues that they’ve had all season long. I like the Seahawks to win and cover against the spread.

Best Pick: Seahawks -3