NFL Regular Season Week 11 Preview

 

Our NFL Regular Season Week 11 preview starts with a bang. On Thursday, Nov. 17, New Orleans travels to Carolina to battle the rival Panthers. Then, on Sunday, one of the great rivalries in the NFL takes place when Pittsburgh battles Cleveland. Also on Sunday, Philly travels to Seattle to battle the Seahawks and Green Bay heads to D.C. to take on Washington. See below for picks for all of Week 11’s NFL action!

Editors Note: Check also Week 11 Betting Picks by Matt Ross

NFL Betting – Regular Season Week 11 Preview

Thursday, Nov. 17

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers -4 (8:25 pm ET)

The Saints beat Carolina 41 to 38 earlier this year. Carolina has been the worst team in the NFC South in 2016. Yes, worse than New Orleans and Tampa Bay. While the Saints are hot, 4 wins in their last 6 games, Carolina has been ice cold. The Panthers are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games. It’s hard to look past the 4 points in this battle. I like New Orleans against the spread.

Sunday, Nov. 20

Pittsburgh Steelers -8 at Cleveland Browns (1:00 pm ET)

Cleveland is easily the worst team in the NFL. They were up by 1-point, 7 to 6, at halftime in their 7 to 28 loss to Baltimore in Week 10. How did the Browns completely fall apart in the second half? The issues started when coach Hue Jackson put Josh McCown in at QB. From then on, Baltimore dominated.

It’s hard to see Pitt giving Jackson the chance to change quarterbacks. Pitt should jump all over Cleveland from the beginning in this game. They are easily the better team. Plus, Pitt is looking for a victory after losing its fourth straight versus Dallas in Week 10.

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys -7.5 (1:00 pm ET)

The Cowboys offensive line has been as good as any unit on either side of the ball in the NFL this season. The line opened a massive hole for RB Ezekiel Elliott to rush through late in the fourth quarter in Week 10. Elliott’s touchdown sealed the Cowboys’ seventh straight win. But Dallas gives up a lot of points to the team in the NFL with the best overall defense.

Baltimore holds its opponents to 281.6 total yards and less than 18 points per game. The 7.5 points could be a lot. I like Dallas to make a run to the Super Bowl. I don’t like them to cover the spread against Baltimore in Week 11. I’m backing the Ravens at +7.5.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions -6.5 (1:00 pm ET)

This is one of those forgettable matchups, right? Not so fast. Detroit is in first place in the NFC North Division. They’re tied with Minnesota at 7-4. But since the Lions have beaten the Vikings once this season, they are ahead of Minnesota. Green Bay is at 6-5. So, for Detroit this is a big game.

The Lions could easily blow out Jacksonville. I’m not sure that they will. The Jags, even after numerous mistakes on both sides of the ball, almost came back against Houston in their 21 to 24 loss to the Texans in Week 10. Jacksonville could surprise the Lions on Sunday. I’m taking the points on the Jags.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts -3 (1:00 pm ET)

It’s hard to see how the Colts are favored by 3 points in this game. Tennessee has the better offense. The Titans rush for 146 yards per game, which ranks third in the NFL, on their way to 386.1 total yards per game, which ranks sixth in the NFL.

Indianapolis isn’t a very good rushing team, which to me gives the edge to Tennessee. I think that the Titans have a shot of beating Indianapolis by close to 10 points on Nov. 20.

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals -3 (1:00 pm ET)

Talk about a line that makes no sense. Buffalo has lost 3 games in a row. The Bills’ losses were to Miami on the road, New England at home, and Seattle on the road. Cincinnati has lost 4 out of their last 6. The loss to the Giants this past Monday was the worst since the Bengals had a 20 to 14 lead going into the 4th quarter.

Somehow, Cincinnati allowed a Giants’ TD, which led to the 21 to 20 NYG win. The problem with the Bengals is that they don’t seem to care too much that they’re losing games. I think Buffalo wins this one straight up just on enthusiasm.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 (1:00 pm ET)

This must be one of the big picks of Week 11. Kansas City has won 5 in a row. Tampa Bay has gone 2 and 3 straight up in their past 5 games. The Bucs’ 2 wins were against San Francisco and the Chicago Bears. Neither one of those teams are close to being as talented as the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs go into this game after beating Carolina on the road 20 to 17. KC spotted the Panthers 17 points in that game. The Chiefs should win this one by at least 10 points on Sunday.

Arizona Cardinals pk at Minnesota pk (4:05 pm ET)

This is another easy pick. At least, on paper it looks like an easy pick. Minnesota blew a 20 to 14 lead on their last way to a 26 to 20 loss against Washington in Week 10. Arizona was all out to beat the San Francisco 49’ers by 3 points in a 23 to 20 AZ win this past Sunday.

Neither team appears capable of winning the NFC at this point in the season. But there is a significant difference between these 2 teams that should lead to an easy Arizona victory. The Cardinals’ second ranked defense has 24 sacks this season. Minnesota’s offensive line gave up no less than 2 sacks in the last 4 games, all Minny losses. Arizona’s D should win it for them on Sunday.

Chicago Bears at New York Giants -7 (1:00 pm ET)

The line is only 7 points in this game? Am I reading that right? Chicago is a mess. QB Jay Cutler was awful against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL in Week 10. The Buccaneers’ defense had allowed Oakland’s Derek Carr to pass for 513 yards and throw 4 TDs earlier this season.

All Cutler could manage was 2 picks, a lost fumble, a TD pass and 182 yards. If the Giants’ D could shut down Andy Dalton to A.J. Green, it’s going to shut down Cutler to Cameron Meredith. The Giants cover the spread on Nov. 20.

Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams -1 (4:05 pm ET)

This is another spread that makes no sense. Miami rides a 4 game winning streak into Los Angeles this Sunday. The Dolphins beat Pitt 30 to 15, Buffalo 28 to 25, the New York Jets 27 to 23, and San Diego 31 to 24 in their last. Los Angeles broke a 4 game losing streak in a 9 to 6 win over NYJ in their last. It looks to me like Miami is going to thump the Rams in this match up.

New England Patriots -13.5 at San Francisco 49’ers (4:25 pm ET)

The betting line figures to rise substantially the closer we approach kick-off in this game. San Francisco’s defense played very well in the 20 to 23 loss to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 10. But New England is fired up. The Patriots go into Week 11 having lost a close one to Seattle in their last.

New England’s offense is too good not to score close to 40 points versus a San Francisco defense that yields 430 yards on average per game and over 31 points per. I think New England wins by at least 17 in this one.

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks -6 (4:25 pm ET)

The Philadelphia Eagles travel to CenturyLink Field in Seattle to battle the Seahawks on Sunday, Nov. 20 in what could be one of the more interesting games of the week. Philly goes into Seattle having beaten the Atlanta Falcons 24 to 15 in their last.

It was a spirited win from an Eagles’ squad that needed to put the close losses to the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants in their 2 previous games behind them. Philadelphia is one of the better teams in the NFC. Seattle might find that out in Week 11. I’m taking the points in this game.

Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins -2.5 (8:30 pm ET)

What’s up with the Green Bay Packers? The Pack have lost 4 out of their last 5 and 3 in a row. Injuries. That’s what’s up. Green Bay could be without 2 starters along the offensive line this Sunday. They’re going to be without CB Sam Shields on their defense for sure.

Shields isn’t eligible to return until Week 15. They could be without LB Clay Matthews and S Morgan Burnett, both of which are day to day due to injury. I think Washington easily covers the spread against Green Bay on Nov. 20.

Monday, Nov. 21

Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders -5 (8:30 pm ET)

Something must give in this game. Will it be the Raiders’ offense or Houston’s defense? Oakland averages 401 total yards and 27 points per game. Houston’s defense allows an average of 317 total yards and 21 points per game.

This could be an exciting match up on Monday night. At the end of it all, I’m siding with the Raiders. To me, Houston has gotten lucky in their last few wins. I think Oakland puts an end to that on Nov. 21 with a big 10 to 17 point win.