Week 5 in the NFL this season has some terrific matchups! Check out my picks for every game this week, including the Monday Night battle between Tampa Bay and Carolina. Also, Tom Brady is back this week, let’s see how it goes for the Patriots after being blanked last week.
NFL Betting – Regular Season Week 5 Preview
Thursday, Oct. 6
Arizona Cardinals -3 at San Francisco 49’ers (8:25 pm ET)
The Cardinals might have to play this game with back-up QB Drew Stanton. I don’t think it will matter. Arizona’s offense has been great this season. It hasn’t translated to wins, which is why the Cardinals are a l and 3 straight up. But the offense should have no trouble putting a beat down, whether it’s Palmer or Stanton, on San Francisco’s defense. The 49’ers allow 140.5 rushing yards per game. Cardinals’ RB David Johnson should have a field day. I’m more than happy to give up the 3 points.
Sunday, Oct. 9
New England Patriots -10.5 at Cleveland Browns (1:00 pm ET)
Everybody is excited about this battle because Terrific Tom Brady returns to the gridiron. Brady probably won’t make that much of a difference. The Patriots went 3 and 1 straight up and ATS while Brady was suspended. The offense should still be very good.
What trips me out about this game is how so many football handicappers aren’t paying attention to what the Buffalo Bills offense did to New England in Week 4. The Bills rushed for 130 yards. The Browns are the top rushing team in the NFL at 149 yards per game. I’m taking the 10.5 points.
Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 at Detroit Lions (1:00 pm ET)
Philadelphia is a very good football team. The Eagles’ defense is one of the better units in the NFL. But I don’t like this situation. Philly goes into Detroit after Detroit lost 13 to 17 straight up as a road favorite against Chicago in Week 4.
Philadelphia goes into the game off of their bye week. I think Detroit has a bounce back game and hands the Eagles their first loss of the season.
Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts -4.5 (1:00 pm ET)
The spread is ridiculous in this game. Chicago’s pass defense is much better than anyone gives it credit for being. The Bears held Detroit QB Matthew Stafford to 213 total passing yards and 2 interceptions. Chicago is ranked 8th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game at 210.
The ATS line wouldn’t be an issue if the Colts had a rushing attack. Indy averages 88 rushing yards per game. That’s not going to cut it against a Bears’ defense designed to stop the pass. I’m taking the points again.
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins -3.5 (1:00 pm ET)
The Titans’ problems on offense are at the QB position where Marcus Mariota has been awful. His QB rating is a horrid 73.9 on the season. He’s completing less than 60% of his passes. Mariota has to get it together or the Titans won’t win another game this season.
With that being written, I have to take the points on Tennessee again. Miami’s defense has been terrible. It allows 401.8 total yards per game on average. The yardage includes 129.8 rushing yards per game. That should play into Tennessee’s hands…if Mariota doesn’t turn the ball over.
Washington Redskins at Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (1:00 pm ET)
I promise that I’ll start taking favorites in Week 5. I promise. It just won’t happen in the Battle of Maryland between Washington and Baltimore. Sorry, can’t do it. 58% of football handicappers are all over the DC’ers in this game. I can see why. Washington QB Kirk Cousins has turned it around.
After being terrible in Washington’s first 2 games of the season, Cousins has thrown 5 TD passes to only 1 interception in two straight Washington wins. He completed over 77% of his passes against Cleveland. Baltimore’s defense is better than Cleveland’s, sure. But, the Ravens face a Washington team that has gotten significantly better in the last 2 weeks. I have to take the points.
Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings -6 (1:00 pm ET)
This is where I start picking favorites. I don’t like Houston’s matchup against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 5. I’m so against it that I’m willing to give up 6 points, a rarity for me, in the game.
Houston QB Brock Osweiler has been a huge disappointment. His QB rating is 74.8. His TD to INT ratio is 5 to 6. Houston RB Lamar Miller has been a huge disappointment as well. He only has 351 rushing yards this season. He’s scored 0 touchdowns. At least he has 13 catches for 329 yards. That’s okay.
Minnesota’s defense has shut own Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning, and Cam Newton already this season. Minnesota’s D should dominate the Houston offense in Week 5.
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers -7 (1:00 pm ET)
As long as Ryan Fitzpatrick has the green light to sling it all over the football field, the Jets may never cover another spread, well, ever. Fitzpatrick has thrown 1 TD to 7 interceptions in the last two NYJ games. It’s one of the worst two game stretches for a QB that I’ve ever seen in my life. Ever. At any level.
Pittsburgh’s offense is unstoppable now that Le’Veon Bell is back at RB. It’s not like the Jets’ defense has been anything special this season. Opponents average 285 passing yards per game versus the Jets. Big Ben and the Steelers should roll.
Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos -6 (4:05 pm ET)
This could be the week where the incredible Atlanta offense finally meets its match. The Falcons’ offense was stunning in Week 4. QB Matt Ryan threw for over 500 yards. WR Julio Jones was good for 300 receiving yards. He also scored a TD.
Ryan and Jones face the best defense in the NFL. I think that Denver controls Atlanta’s offense enough for the Broncos to cover the 6-point spread. Also, Atlanta’s defense isn’t very good. Whether it’s Paxton Lynch or Trevor Seimian at QB, the Broncos shouldn’t have trouble moving the football. I’ll give up the 6 points.
Cincinnati Bengals pk at Dallas Cowboys pk (4:25 pm ET)
My gut tells me that the light went off for the entire Cincinnati Bengals’ football team in Cincy’s 22 to 7 win over the Miami Dolphins in Week 4. The Bengals needed to get a victory after losing 2 games in a row to Pittsburgh and Denver.
Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton found WR A.J. Green against the Dolphins.
Although the Cowboys have won 3 games in a row both straight up and against the spread, the 3 wins have been against Washington, Chicago and San Francisco. Cincinnati is a much better team than any of those squads. The Bengals are one of the more obvious picks to cover in our Week 5 previe.
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams -2.5 (4:25 pm ET)
The Bills travel to Los Angeles on somewhat of a hot streak. Buffalo has won 2 games in a row after taking it to New England in Week 4. They throttled Arizona in Week 3. Can they do the same to Los Angeles? I’m not so sure.
The Rams are on a 3 game winning streak. Los Angeles has the type of defense that could cause the Bills issues. Not only that but the Rams’ offense has started to come together. I like L.A. to cover the -2.5 points.
San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders -4 (4:25 pm ET)
To me, the Chargers are a play straight up. Oakland has gotten lucky in all 3 of its wins this season while San Diego has been somewhat unlikely in all 3 of its losses. The Chargers, overall, are just as good of a team as Oakland. Both squads have terrific quarterbacks, so-so defenses, and good coaches.
I think that what this comes down to is QB Phillip Rivers, who should use his experience to outduel QB Derek Carr in a game that’s almost guaranteed to go over the 50.5 total. Take the points if you don’t want to ride Rivers and the Bolts to a moneyline win.
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers -7 (8:30 pm ET)
I’m going back to my love for underdogs in this game. I just don’t think that the Packers’ offense is good enough to take advantage of the Giants’ weakness on defense. Green Bay, surprisingly, is one of the worst passing teams in the NFL.
The Giants’ biggest issues on defense is their secondary. That’s the first problem I have with backing the Packers’ at -7. The second problem I have is that Green Bay’s defense allows over 300 passing yards per game on average.
Giants’ QB Eli Manning should pick apart Green Bay’s D all day in this game. I have to take the 7 points.
Monday, Oct. 10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (8:30 pm ET)
Odds makers will set an ATS line once confirmation is out on whether or not Cam Newton can play. So we have no line in this week 5 preview. Either way, I like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Carolina Panthers’ defense allowed Atlanta’s Matt Ryan to pass for over 500 yards and 4 touchdowns. It allowed Julio Jones, one player, to amass 300 yards receiving.
I don’t see how Buc’s QB Jameis Winston and WR Mike Evans don’t destroy the Panthers’ defense. I don’t care what the point spread is. I’m going with Tampa Bay.