NFL Betting - Regular Season Week 6 Preview

 

Week 6 in the 2016 NFL Regular Season could answer a couple of questions. Is Tom Brady really back? Brady looked great versus Cleveland in Week 5. He plays a tougher team in Week 6 in Cincinnati. Also, are the Buffalo Bills, who have won 3 straight games, for real? Buffalo will be looking for its fourth straight up and against the spread victory on Oct. 16. Check below our NFL Week 6 preview for every game!

Editors Note: Check also Week 6 Betting Picks by Matt Ross

NFL Betting – Regular Season Week 6 Preview

Thursday, Oct. 13

Denver Broncos -3 at San Diego Chargers (8:25 pm ET)

The Broncos travel to San Diego after their first loss of the season. The loss to Atlanta wasn’t all that bad. The Falcons are proving to be one of the better teams in the NFC.

Can Denver bounce back as a road favorite? They certainly can! San Diego’s rushing game is a mess while Denver has the best secondary in the NFL. Unless San Diego pulls an Atlanta and rushes for over 120 yards, Denver’s defense should do enough to force Rivers into an interception or 2.

I also think QB Paxton Lynch improves from his first ever start in the NFL where he threw a pick. I like Denver to cover.

Sunday, Oct. 16

San Francisco 49’ers at Buffalo Bills -7.5 (1:00 pm ET)

This is one of my no-brainer picks of Week 6. There’s no way that Buffalo doesn’t cover against the San Francisco 49’ers in Buffalo in Week 6. Rex Ryan has his team focused on both sides of the football.

Buffalo’s defense only allows 97.2 rushing yards per game. The Bills’ offense averages 137.2 rushing yards per game. San Francisco’s defense gives up 146.8 rushing yards per game on average. Buffalo should rush to close to 200 yards in this game while beating the 49’ers by at least 2 touchdowns.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears -2 (1:00 pm ET)

I’m back on the Jags’ bandwagon. I know, it will probably hurt me. But, I have to do it. I just have to. Jacksonville has covered the spread in 2 straight games. Of their 3 losses, only the 14 to 38 loss to San Diego on the road was a bad loss. Jacksonville had a chance to upset Green Bay in Week 1.

The Jaguars’ offense is stacked while the defense actually played well versus the Colts in England in Week 4. Andrew Luck only threw for 234 yards. He threw an interception. The Colts’ offense was held to under 100 yards rushing. I like Jacksonville to pull off the moneyline upset.

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions -3 (1:00 pm ET)

These 2 teams are seemingly evenly matched until it comes to the QB position. Detroit has the much better quarterback leading their offense in Matthew Stafford than what the Rams have. Stafford has thrown for 1,378 yards. He’s thrown 10 TD passes to only 4 interceptions. He’s a legitimate starter in the NFL. Stafford’s QB rating is 99.6.

Rams’ QB Case Keenum is completing only 57.9% of his passes. He’s thrown 4 TDs to 5 interceptions. He’s only thrown for 1,096 yards. In this battle, where both defenses appear capable and both have good coaches, I have to back the team with the better quarterback. In this case, that team is, without a doubt, the Detroit Lions.

Pittsburgh Steelers -7.5 at Miami Dolphins (1:00 pm ET)

Here’s my other no-brainer pick of Week 6. Miami has no chance of stopping Pittsburgh’s offense. Big Ben found a new target in Sammie Coates, who scored 2 touchdowns, in Pittsburgh’s win over the New York Jets in Week 5.

Le’Veon Bell has been great in 2 straight games. Not only that, but Miami’s offense has sputtered in 2 straight. A week after only scoring 7 points, Miami could score only 17 against Tennessee in a 17 to 30 home loss. The Titans rushed for 235 yards in that one. Pittsburgh should beat Miami by at least 20 points.

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots -8.5 (1:00 pm ET)

Sure, Tom Brady was great against Cleveland in Week 5. He threw for 406 yards. He threw 3 TD passes. But doesn’t 8.5 points feel like a lot? Not really. N0t in this game.

Cincinnati doesn’t have a good enough defense to stop New England offense. Even though Brady went off versus Cleveland, it’s not like the Patriots gave up on the run. In fact, New England rushed for 98 yards. That’s incredible considering how many passing yards Brady had.

The Bengals gave up 180 rushing yards and 222 passing yards to Dallas in their 14 to 28 loss in Week 5. Cincinnati is in trouble.

Carolina Panthers -3 at New Orleans Saints (1:00 pm ET)

If the betting line holds, it shouldn’t but if it does, Saints moneyline is definitely the way to go in this game. Carolina’s defense hasn’t played well in the Panthers’ last 3 games, all losses. QB Drew Brees always seems to have a great game versus Carolina. This Sunday should be no different.

New Orleans figures to beat up the Panthers on offense while playing much better on defense. The Saints’ D came together some in their 35 to 34 comeback win over San Diego on Oct. 2. The bye should have helped the maligned defense come together even more. I like New Orleans to add a fourth straight loss to Carolina’s record.

Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants -3 (1:00 pm ET)

Both teams in this matchup are reeling. The Giants have it worse since they’ve lost 3 games in a row while the Baltimore Ravens have lost 2 games in a row. Out of the 2 teams, I prefer the Giants. I think that New York’s performance against Green Bay, where they lost 16 to 23, has more to do with the Giants having lost to the best team in the NFL in Minnesota on the road only 6 days before. NYG is better than it showed against the Packers. The Giants should step up enough to cover the spread on Sunday.

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans -6.5 (1:00 pm ET)

The Browns should be able to start QB Cody Kessler. Even if they don’t, Terrelle Pryor could play if need be. In any case, the Browns will have a starting QB. The problem that Cleveland has in this game is how to deal with Tennessee’s rushing attack.

The Titans average a gargantuan 148.6 rushing yards per game. Tennessee’s defense hasn’t looked all that bad either. It held Miami to 17 points in Week 5. I think Tennessee covers.

Philadelphia Eagles -2 at Washington Redskins (1:00 pm ET)

Philadelphia had what my dad would call a character building loss against the Detroit Lions in Week 5. Losing is never good, but there are times where positive things can be taken from a loss.

In this case, the positive thing is that Philly only allowed Detroit to score 3 points in the second half of their 23 to 24 loss in Week 5. Philadelphia should cover the 2-point spread in this game.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders -1.5 (4:05 pm ET)

Kansas City let things get out of control against Pittsburgh in their 14 to 43 loss on Oct. 2. But the Chiefs go into this battle off of a bye. What’s important to note is that the betting line has already gone down half a point, from Raiders -2 to Raiders -1.5, in only a couple of days.

KC is a good enough team to prevent Oakland QB Derek Carr from providing his usual heroics. I think Kansas City wins the game straight up.

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers -4 (4:25 pm ET)

There is no way that Dallas should be a +4 dog against Green Bay in Week 6. I don’t care if it’s at Lambeau. Dallas is simply the better team. The Cowboys offense should have no trouble moving the football against a Packer defense that yields 274.5 passing yards per game.

The Dallas defense has been terrific this season. It’s given up 23 points in one game this season while holding every other team to 20 points or less. I like Dallas on the moneyline but I totally understand if most football handicappers take the 4 points.

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks -6 (4:25 pm ET)

Most football handicappers are taking the 6 points on Atlanta. Right now, 66% back Atlanta while only 33% back Seattle at -6. To me, that’s a mistake. Atlanta looked great when beating the Denver Broncos. But, we need perspective. For starters,

Denver’s offense isn’t nearly as capable as Seattle’s, which scored 37 versus San Francisco and 27 against the Jets, both wins, before the Seahawks’ bye week. Also, Seattle’s defense is ranked second against the pass. It only allows 183.8 passing yards per game. I think Seattle at -6 over Atlanta is close to being a slam dunk.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans -3 (8:30 pm ET)

Wow. The very first, initial, betting line had Houston at -6.5. After all of Sunday’s Week 5 games, the line from many sportsbooks set Houston as a -3.5 favorite. Now, the Texans are at -3. Will they cover against Indianapolis? I think that they will.

QB Brock Osweiler, heck, the entire Houston offense, is getting a lot of flak for only averaging 310 yards and 16 points per game. The Texans’ offense could get well against an Indianapolis defense that allows 410.6 yards and 29.6 points per game. Houston should cover the spread in this battle.

Monday, Oct. 17

New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals -7.5 (8:30 pm ET)

Carson Palmer is day to day. If Arizona’s starting QB doesn’t play, things could get rough for the Cardinals in this match up. I do feel that Arizona is the better team, but there’s no way that the Cardinals rush for 172 yards versus the Jets the way that they did against the San Francisco 49’ers.

I can’t back Arizona at -7.5. I have to take the points. Yes, that’s even if Palmer plays. The Jets have the ability to keep it closer than 7.5 points.