Prop Betting Super Bowl LI and Spread Update

Last week we previewed Super Bowl LI from the perspective of the spread. This week’s blog is all about the props. Prop betting Super Bowl LI, as on any Super Bowl is a huge part of what makes the Super Bowl the biggest wagering event of the year. There are a multitude of prop bets. I detail some of those, including Super Bowl MVP. Before that, check out some words of wisdom on prop betting.

Prop Betting Super Bowl LI

Before making a single prop bet, you should decide how you believe the game will be played. Since I believe that New England beats Atlanta and easily covers the spread, all the prop bets that I make should have the Patriots beating Atlanta by more than the 3-point spread as a base. That’s rule number one. Only look for prop bets that confirm your original thesis. If your original thesis in Super Bowl LI is that Atlanta beats New England on the moneyline, you should only consider wagering on props that support that thesis.

Rule number two when it comes to prop wagering on the Super Bowl, is to never back an underlay. In horse racing betting parlance, an underlay is a horse offering odds below what you as the handicapper consider fair odds. Since prop bets on the Super Bowl is different than betting on horses (I don’t have a racing form to study), I prefer to set a money threshold for Super Bowl prop bets.

The money threshold for prop bets on Super Bowl LI is +125. What this means is that I won’t bet on any prop with odds lower than +125. With those rules in place, let’s get to this year’s best Super Bowl LI prop bets!

Super Bowl MVP

Super Bowl MVP is the best prop on which to wager because in most years it allows for above even money odds on every proposition. This year, the favorite is Tom Brady, New England’s quarterback. Brady qualifies regarding rule number one. As of late last week, Terrific Tom was at a healthy +160 to win Super Bowl MVP.

If I bet on Super Bowl MVP today, Brady would be the choice. But, what would happen if I waited until Saturday to make my wager and Brady were at +125 or less? If Brady were on the cusp of my second rule, I’d turn my attention to someone like WR Chris Hogan, who is at 35 to 1, or a New England defensive player like Malcolm Butler who may have to shut down Atlanta WR great Julio Jones. Butler is at 65 to 1.

Patriots to Win Both Halves

This is a great prop no matter if you’re a fan of the Falcons or Patriots in Super Bowl LI. For me, the odds are terrific at Yes 2.5 to 1. If the game plays out the way that I believe it will, with the Patriots getting around a 7-point lead in the first half and then building that lead to 10 to 14 points in the second half, this prop will be a winner. For Atlanta fans, the odds are +400 Yes. That’s worth a shot if you truly believe that Atlanta gets the job done in Super Bowl LI.

Patriots to Score in Every Quarter

Again, it doesn’t matter whether you’re backing the Falcons or the Patriots against the spread. This prop sets up as a dynamite one for NFL handicappers.

The Patriots offer odds of +130. That’s +5 above my fair odds threshold. If the odds stay above my fair odds threshold, it’s a smart wager. If the odds drop below +125 on the Pats to score in every quarter, I must pass no matter how strongly I believe in the outcome.

The odds-on Atlanta to score in every quarter are at +165. If you’ve set an odds threshold at +125, just like I have, getting +45 above the threshold constitutes great value.

A Word About the Super Bowl LI Spread

Last week’s blog, a preview of Super Bowl LI, discussed the New England Patriots as a -3 favorite. Guess what? The odds on the Patriots haven’t changed from -3. New England is a -3 favorite although Atlanta, from what I’ve read, has garnered most of the wagering action from the early betting pros.

The odds could quickly change. Atlanta could end up as a -1.5 dog. Or, which is what I’m predicting, the Patriots end up as a -3.5 favorite over the weekend until being bet down again by pro bettors to -3 favorites. Some sportsbooks are already anticipating this as they’re offering the Patriots at -3 -115 instead of the customer -110.

Keep that in mind as you consider what wagers, if any, to make on Super Bowl LI.

What do you think?

Written by D.S. Williamson