Bills vs Chiefs Best Bets and Picks from Experts: Predictions, Lines, Odds and Picks

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We;ve compiled the best free NFL picks and predictions for the Bills vs. Chiefs game on January 21, 2024 from experts across the web including from /r/sportsbook our favorite Sportsbook Subrredit.

  1. BetAdrian Oddsmakers are taking the under in the Bills-Chiefs game at -110 and 45.5 total points.
  2. suggests that the game could be high-scoring and recommends betting on Over 48.5, highlighting the importance of Josh Allen’s performance for the Bills, especially considering their banged-up defense.
  3. Winners and Whiners predict a close game with the Bills as 2.5-point favorites and a total game score of 45.5 points. They note that the Chiefs were profitable under bets this season due to their stingy defense and suggest a run-focused approach by both teams, which could lead to longer drives and a lower-scoring game.
  4. Vegas Insider provides the betting odds for the game, with the Bills as -2.5 point favorites and the total set at 45.5 points. They recount the dramatic Divisional Round game from two years ago between these teams, which led to a rule change due to the game’s outcome.
  5. PickDawgz offers a free preview and analysis of the game but does not provide a specific prediction or pick against the spread.

In the AFC Divisional Game between the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs, there are several key matchups to watch:

  1. Josh Allen vs. Chiefs’ Defense: Josh Allen has been the driving force behind the Bills’ offense, and his performance will be crucial against the Chiefs’ defense, which has been stingy this season.
  2. Patrick Mahomes vs. Bills’ Defense: Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs’ quarterback, will face a Bills defense that has been depleted by injuries. His ability to exploit this weakened defense will be key to the Chiefs’ success.
  3. Travis Kelce vs. Bills’ Linebackers/Safeties: Travis Kelce, the Chiefs’ top red-zone option, will be a player to watch as he tries to find space against the Bills’ defense, which has been dealing with injuries.
  4. Bills’ Receivers vs. Chiefs’ Secondary: The Bills’ receiving corps, including Stefon Diggs, will be up against the Chiefs’ secondary. Their ability to create separation and make plays downfield could be a deciding factor in the game.
  5. Chiefs’ Offensive Line vs. Bills’ Pass Rush: The Chiefs’ offensive line will need to protect Mahomes from the Bills’ pass rush to give him time to make plays.
  6. Coaching Strategies: The coaching matchup between Sean McDermott of the Bills and Andy Reid of the Chiefs will also be critical, as both are known for their strategic acumen and in-game adjustments.

These matchups will likely determine the outcome of the game and which team advances to the AFC Championship Game.

Best Reddit Sportsbook Picks

Got in at OVER 241.5 passing yards for Mayfield early in the week, the line is currently at 262.5 – a lot of the value is gone but even at the current number it still feels like a good play up to 270. I also like the total to go over, and lean the Bucs +6.5 as a side and will explain my thought process.

Mayfield just put up 337 yards against Philly – “well that was against a Philly defense that has been collapsing for the past few weeks” Detroit’s pass defense has been just as bad season long, and the past few weeks isolated is been much worse than the Eagles.

Over the last 4 games Detroit has played they’ve allowed an average of 353 passing yards per game, good for dead last in that span by a wide margin. Against the run – Detroit boasts the 3rd best run defense, while TB ranks dead last in 3.5 yards per rush attempt. This is a straight fade against the Lions corners Cam Sutton and Kindle Vildor going against an experienced duo in Evans and Godwin.

Tampa’s defense is very similar to the Lions, Tampa is great at stopping the run but terrible against the pass. Goff is arguably the best and most reliant quarterback on play action so it will be interesting to see how this unfolds.

Two things that are interesting to note:

The Lions have been the luckiest team in the NFL, meaning they’ve won more games relative to how they’ve performed.

The Lions have a clear 1H and 2H dichotomy – they play fantastic to start games ranked 3rd best, but can fall flat in the second half, they rank #18 so if you like Tampa, consider looking at TB 2H ML +144

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What do you think?

Written by Reggie Breese