I admit, NFL Week 10 was brutal. I get into the specifics on my NFL Week 10 Picks N’ Schedules piece. You know, the one where I make my disastrous picks by putting two asterisks next to the teams I like against the spread?
Disaster doesn’t even begin to describe NFL Week 9. Oh, well, the only thing to do is to keep moving on as Sam Cooke sang. Let’s do it!
2017 NFL Week 10 Preview
Seattle Seahawks -5.5 at Arizona Cardinals +5.5
I’m not in love with the Seattle Seahawks. I’m definitely not in love with the Arizona Cardinals. One thing that does impress me is that the Cardinals aren’t messing around. They know their best chance of winning football games is to control the clock and lean on their decent, not great, but decent defense.
Adrian Peterson rushed for 159 yards versus the San Francisco 49’ers in Week 2. I think he only must rush for half that for the Cardinals to keep the Seahawks playing at their tempo. Seattle’s best chance of winning the game straight up is for QB Russell Wilson to go off in the passing game.
I’m with the Cardinals. I think they’ll have a great gameplan going into this AFC West battle.
Pick: Arizona Cardinals +5.5
Pittsburgh Steelers -10 at Indianapolis Colts +10
The Colts played marvelously on both offense and defense in NFL Week 9. Can the Colts possibly make it two wins in a row? I doubt it. Indianapolis isn’t the type of NFL team that can win two games in a row. They’re just not good enough. What I do believe is that the Colts keep it close.
Why? Trends. The Steelers are 1 and 5 against the spread in their last 6 games after a bye week. The Colts are 9 and 1 against the spread in their last 10 games in November. Pittsburgh’s also 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 road games versus a team with a losing home record.
I’m all over Indy at +10.
Pick: Colts +10
Minnesota Vikings -1.5 at Washington Redskins +1.5
The Vikings go to Washington off their bye week. I believe, so far, NFL handicappers are putting way too much stock into Washington’s 17 to 14 road win over Seattle in Week 9. Seattle lost the game. Washington didn’t win the game. Yet, here we are. So far, 58% back Washington.
I think Minnesota beats Washington going away. QB Teddy Bridgewater could play if Minny needs him while the RB duo of Jerrick McKinnon and Latavius Murray has been strong. I’m siding with Minnesota as a best pick.
Best Pick: Vikings -1.5
Cleveland Browns +9.5 at Detroit Lions -9.5
Detroit played marvelously in their 30 to 17 win over Green Bay in NFL Week 9. I’m not sold on the Lions, though. It’s hard to believe, but Cleveland has a better defense than what Green Bay’s got. The Browns’ D ranks 4th versus the rush. It allows 84.2 total rushing yards per game. It ranks 9th overall. Cleveland’s D allows 313.5 total yards per game on average.
Detroit had better be careful. I’m not joking when I write that Cleveland could beat the Lions straight up in this matchup on Sunday.
Pick: Browns +9.5
New York Jets -3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3
The Jets are actually favored over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers even though this is a road game for NYJ. It makes sense because J-E-T-S heads to Florida after having beaten Buffalo straight up 34 to 21 as a +6.5 home dog. Also, Tampa must start QB Ryan Fitzpatrick because Jameis Winston is hurt.
I’m taking a different approach. I believe the Buccaneers get back on the winning track with Fitz at QB. A healthy Fitz is much better than a hurt Jameis.
Pick: Buccaneers +3
Green Bay Packers +5 at Chicago Bears -5
I was all over Green Bay before watching how QB Matthew Stafford dominated their defense on Monday night. Staff threw 2 TD passes while throwing for over 300 yards. He looked great.
I know that Bears’ QB Mitch Trubisky isn’t Matthew Stafford. The Bears are going to have Trubisky throw the ball short to RB Tarik Cohen while the Bears also hand it off to RB Jordan Howard. Based on what I saw from Green Bay’s defense this past Monday night, that should be enough for the Bears to not only win straight up, but to also cover the spread.
Pick: Bears -5
L.A. Chargers +4 at Jacksonville Jaguars -4
This is a total trends game. Jacksonville is 8 and 2 ATS in their last 10 versus the AFC. They’re also 11 and 4 against the spread in their last 15 in NFL Week 10. Jacksonville has gone 8 and 3 against the spread in their last 11 games overall.
The Bolts are 1 and 6 ATS versus a team with a winning record. LAC is also 0 and 4 against the spread in their last 4 games in Week 10. The Chargers are 1 and 6 against the spread in their last 7 versus a team with a winning record.
The Jags are a best pick.
Best Pick: Jaguars -4
New Orleans Saints -2.5 at Buffalo Bills +2.5
Here’s another best pick. New Orleans is so good because they’re balanced on offense and they’ve got a great defense. The Saints average 122.8 rushing yards per game. Drew Brees averages 269.8 passing yards per game. The Saints average close to 27 points per game.
How well does New Orleans’ defense play? New Orleans only allows 19.4 points per. In 5 of the Saints last 6 wins, only 1 team scored more than 17 points. The Detroit Lions scored 38 points in a 52 to 38 Saints’ victory.
Best Pick: Saints -2.5
Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 at Tennessee Titans -5.5
I know that Cincinnati has a bad offensive line. This matchup favors the Bengals way more than their matchup in Week 9, though. Cincinnati’s best attribute is their passing attack. The Bengals’ defense is their second best attribute.
Tennessee averages 317.8 yards per game. That ranks 20th in the NFL. Tennessee’s defense is terrible versus the pass. The Titans’ last 3 wins have been against Indianapolis, Cleveland, and Baltimore. None of those teams have a quarterback as good as Andy Dalton.
The Bengals could beat Tennessee straight up on Sunday.
Pick: Bengals +5.5
Houston Texans +11.5 at L.A. Rams -11.5
The Texans have no shot of keeping their battle with the L.A. Rams close on Sunday. The Rams’ offense should score at least 35 points while Houston’s offense might reach 17. The Rams average 32.9 points per game. LAR’s D hasn’t allowed a single team to score more than 17 points in their last 3 games, all wins.
Even if Houston hits 17, the Rams are bound to hit their average. That comes out to a 15.9 spread. So, unless the Rams rise to -16 favorites, they’re the play in this.
Pick: Rams -11.5
New York Giants +1.5 at San Francisco 49’ers -1.5
San Francisco hasn’t won a football game yet this season. That’s supposed to change this Sunday. The 49’ers are just a better team than the New York Giants are. The Giants’ defense has become one of the worst units in the NFL.
Although the above is true, I’m siding with the Giants. Makes no sense, right? Oh, but it does! The Giants have a decent running back in Orleans Darkwa. He rushed for 71 yards from 16 carries in the Giants horrific loss to the Rams in Week 9. San Francisco’s defense allows 135.7 rushing yards per game. That ranks 32nd in the NFL.
If Darkwa gets carries while the Giants’ defense tempers San Francisco’s offense, the G-Men should win their second game of the season.
Pick: Giants +1.5
Dallas Cowboys +3 at Atlanta Falcons -3
Atlanta shouldn’t be favored in this game. The Dallas Cowboys, whether Ezekiel Elliot plays or not, are on a roll because their quarterback isn’t making any mistakes. Dak Prescott, by himself, could beat the Atlanta Falcons’ defense. I think Dallas rolls the Georgia Birds in this matchup.
Best Pick: Cowboys +3
New England Patriots -7.5 at Denver Broncos +7.5
Man, there are a lot of best picks this week. Hopefully, I’m right on all of them because Week 9 was a disaster. Denver doesn’t know which way is up. Coach Vance Joseph doesn’t know who he’s starting at QB. The Denver defense suddenly can’t stop anybody from scoring over 30 points against it. The Patriots dominate the Broncos on Sunday night.
Best Pick: Patriots -7.5
Miami Dolphins +9 at Carolina Panthers -9
Miami’s the play here. The Panthers go into the game off a huge 20 to 17 win over NFC South rival Atlanta. Carolina is a good football team. But, Carolina isn’t good enough to beat the Miami Dolphins by more than 9 points.
What’s encouraging if your a Miami Dolphins’ football fan is that QB Jay Cutler played well in the Fins’ loss to Oakland this past Sunday. If Cutler plays that well in Week 10, who knows? Maybe, Miami beats Carolina straight up at huge moneyline odds.
Pick: Dolphins +9